2022-2021 years when the horizon is difficult to discern as the fog is thick. But each country tries to juggle in order to be able to stand up to adversity. Some very significant news.
IMF FORECASTS ON UNEMPLOYMENT in 2021
The health crisis with its share of containment and closures has impacted the economy and many countries have experienced a historic recession in 2020.
According to the latest IMF forecasts, the unemployment rate should increase this year in France, to reach 9.1%, against 8.2% in 2020. Other European countries should suffer the same fate, since an increase average of nearly one point is expected for the euro area as a whole (from 7.9% to 8.7%). Southern Europe will be the most affected in 2021: more than 16% unemployment is expected in Greece and Spain, and more than 10% in Italy. In the north of the continent, Sweden and Finland should also be among the most affected with rates approaching 9%.
International economy: what recovery in 2021 according to the OECD?
The latest global economic outlook brings some glimmers of hope for the French economy. In its March report, the OECD is counting on a GDP increase of nearly 6% in France in 2021, a growth rate never seen since 1973 and which would allow France to record the highest recovery in Europe. If these projections are confirmed, the French economy would also post a performance above the world average, estimated for the time being at + 5.6%. Among the other countries on the planet, only the United States (+ 6.5%), China (+ 7.8%), as well as India (+ 12.6%). But after the massive recession suffered last year, the French economy will have to wait until 2022 to return to its pre-pandemic level. Indeed, at the end of the year, it is estimated that the country’s economic output is expected to be around 97% of the level reached in the fourth quarter of 2019.
Covid: companies will be able to pay the Macron premium until early 2022
The Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Recovery and the Ministry of Labor, Employment and Integration have proposed to the social partners to renew the exceptional purchasing power bonus, tax-exempt within the limit of a ceiling of 1,000 euros, for salaries up to 3 minimum wage, in continuity with the bonus introduced by the President of the Republic in 2018. In accordance with the Government’s desire that second-line workers benefit from priority of this bonus, the ceiling may be raised to 2,000 euros if the company or branch formally undertakes actions to promote these workers. The ceiling of 2,000 euros may also benefit employees whose company is covered by a profit-sharing agreement in r. It is proposed that the bonus can be paid until early 2022.
As of July 1, product orders made on platforms outside the European Union will cost more. VAT will be applied to all parcels coming from non-European states, even those over the price of 22 euros, which were until now exempt from this tax. The Minister for Public Accounts, Olivier Dussopt, declared: “In France, we will thus go from 15 million electronic customs declarations to 450 million”. This directive will make it possible to fight more effectively against unfair competition on the Internet from foreign platforms such as Alibaba which escaped the tax administration. This will also allow several billion euros to enter state coffers. It will be invoiced by the platforms or the carriers.
New remuneration for vocational training trainees from May 1, 2021
Vocational training trainees participating in an internship approved by the State or the Region receive new, simplified and upgraded internship remuneration. The remuneration of non-compensated job seekers who are in training is set by a scale that has not been upgraded since 2002. A situation which has resulted in “a clear drop in remuneration in relation to inflation (+ 26.4% since 2002) or minimum wage (+ 46.8% since 2002), which places the standard of living of trainees below the monetary poverty line, according to the government. As part of the recovery plan, it was therefore decided to increase the remuneration of trainees: for 16-18 year olds, it will go from 130 euros to 200 euros per month. For trainees aged 18 to 25, it will drop to 500 euros (against 310 or 400 euros previously). Beyond 25 years, the remuneration will reach 685 euros.
In Europe, households have accumulated 450 billion savings
Since the arrival of the virus, Europeans have accumulated unprecedented savings. The multiplication of periods of confinement and restriction measures have limited the possibilities of consuming. According to credit insurer Euler Hermes, additional savings in 2020 are estimated at 450 billion euros, or around 4% of gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, the restrictive measures of the first half of 2021 are likely to create a further increase in savings estimated at 200 billion euros.
The containment and closure strategy has encouraged the savings of the wealthiest families. Indeed, expenses such as hotels, restaurants, long-haul flights and luxury have also been confined. Conversely, companies have accumulated very significant losses since the start of the pandemic. The use of these savings could boost the demand and consumption of the European economy by around 170 billion according to the models of the economists of thecredit insurance. For now, two-thirds of this savings lie in bank accounts while the last third has been injected into the capital markets.